Formula 1: Against The Odds

I bet we see the Safety Car…

with 2 comments

Looking away from the obvious this weekend, one market that interests me is whether or not the Safety Car will be deployed during the Australian Grand Prix. Unsurprisingly this occurrence is far from random and an important attribute is the nature of the track.

It seems that the key factor in Safety Car deployment is not the potential number of accidents that can occur during the race; but the potential for accidents to leave the track blocked, either by debris or by the cars themselves. Obviously therefore tracks with small run off areas such as Monaco, Montreal and Melbourne are prime candidates.

Other factors that I would look to take into account are the weather, the number of rookie drivers in the race and any changes in the regulations to which the drivers are likely to need time to adjust.

Which brings me to this weekend’s race at Melbourne…

I have already highlighted the fact that this is a track with the potential for us to see the Safety Car and the statistics bear that out.  In the nine races held at Melbourne since 1998 (no stats available for 1996 and 1997), the Safety Car has been deployed no fewer than twelve times – including four times during last year’s race. In that period only three races have been completed without the introduction of the Safety Car.

Given that it is the first race of the season, the potential for mistakes is also heightened. Indeed five of the drivers lining up on the grid in Melbourne will be racing on its slick and slippery surface for the first time in a Formula 1 car.

Furthermore, all 22 drivers will be using the new Bridgestone Potenza tyres – and having to come to terms with using more than one compound during the race.  It has also been noticeable that in all of the pre-race interviews with the drivers, when asked about tyres, the feature that they most focus upon is the lack of grip when compared with last year’s offerings. It will be interesting to see how they perform under race conditions.

Which leads me to my bet. The statistics alone point to it being a 4/6 shot that we will see the Safety Car at some point and it could be argued that the number of rookies and the new tyres make it even shorter. Therefore I consider that the following represents some value:

Australian GP Safety Car market – Yes @ 4/5 – SkyBet

Good luck.


Written by f1punter

March 15, 2007 at 3:22 pm

2 Responses

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  1. good topic. thanks for sharing article

    Orpha Mysliwiec

    January 30, 2010 at 4:38 am

  2. Awesome – was looking for free betting stuff when I found this. Nice job man!

    Sportsbet Free Bet Code

    March 6, 2010 at 6:16 am

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