Formula 1: Against The Odds

Montmelo Margins

with one comment

Included amongst the dozens of markets that Bwin are still offering on the Spanish Grand Prix is one on the winning margin – i.e. the amount of time in seconds between the first and second cars to pass the chequered flag.

Interestingly, alongside the usual under/over type bet, they are offering a range of time periods that the winning margin will fall in to. The final option being over 25 seconds priced at 9/1. My initial reaction was to discount it, as I feel that recent rule changes introduced by the FIA, have generally lead to a tightening of the field. However, further investigation and a quick look at the winning margins of the last ten Spanish GPs shows an interesting story:

2006 +18.5 secs
2005 +27.6 secs
2004 +13.2 secs
2003 +5.7 secs
2002 +35.630 secs
2001 +40.738 secs

2000 +16.066 secs
1999 +6.238 secs
1998 +9.439 secs
1977 +5.804 secs

Now the first three races of 2007 have had an average winning margin of just 9 seconds, however the largest margin came at Malaysia (17.5 seconds), another track that has historically seen a fair share of races with a large gap between the winner and the runner up.  I am not sure what it is about the individual conditions or configurations of tracks that leads to a trend in winning margins but I would wager that it is more than just coincidence.

In simple terms, 9/1 about something that has happened three times out of the last ten would appear to be value. Whether you feel this sample is reflective of the true situation and this is a good bet – I will leave to you to decide.


Written by f1punter

May 13, 2007 at 12:51 am

One Response

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  1. […] Montmelo Margin Bets 27Apr08 This time last year I spotted a trend in the winning margin here at the Circuit de Catalunya that I thought was significant. I still hold […]

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