Formula 1: Against The Odds

Silverstone Survivors

leave a comment »

The market that has been interesting me most in the run up to this weekend’s British Grand Prix is the Total Number of Drivers to be Classified. The interest stems particularly from the chance of inclement weather and the effect that this will have on the prices.

The Statistics

In the eight races so far this season the average number of classified drivers has been 16.25 (73.86%). In the last ten races at Silverstone just 71.23% of drivers have completed (15.67 drivers using Sunday’s projected field).

Where it becomes interesting is when we split Silverstone’s wet and dry races. Eight of the last ten have been dry and have seen 76.92% of drivers classified (16.92 projected drivers).  In the two wet races the average figure falls below 50% and we could expect as few as 10.74 drivers to see the chequered flag. I appreciate that the latter is a small sample but it is broadly reflective of what I would expect to see.

The Market

A small difference in opinion between two firms means that there is just a 103% book available and this gives me some options:

4/5 (Under 16.5) @ SportingOdds
11/10 (Over 16) @ Bet365

The prices look like the fairly standard ones that these two churn out week after week, so I am fairly confident that if the market is to move significantly, it will only be in one direction (and because it is a wet race).

The Bet

Looking at the weather forecast for Sunday, Weather.com have predicted rain for 12:00 local time.  Based on the above statistics – and the logic that more drivers will spin off in the wet – I am going to take the early price of Under 16.5 @ 4/5.  If come Sunday afternoon we have a wet race I do not believe that this price will be available (if it is – take it – it is value).  If the weather forecasters are wrong and the track is bathed in sunshine, I will close out my bet using Bet365’s price and accept a very small loss and no risk.  What I am playing, is my believe that the market makers have not adequately factored in the possibility of a wet race into their early prices.

The Alternative

If you are a weather-forecaster or you are just certain that it will be a rain-affected race then Bet365 are offering 15/8 that there will be under 15 classified drivers. This would be value.

Good luck.


Written by f1punter

July 6, 2007 at 8:28 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: