Formula 1: Against The Odds

Nurburgring, Hamilton and the European GP

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Following today’s dramatic qualifying session and as the market shakes itself out, there are some interesting prices on offer for tomorrow’s race. These are mainly as a result of the Lewis Hamilton will-he-won’t-he race question.  Both Hamilton and team principle Ron Dennis have been making upbeat comments about his likely participation, but nothing has been officially confirmed.

If Hamilton does race, then there is also the issue of whether he will start from tenth position on the grid or whether his car/engine is beyond repair and he is forced to start from the pit lane in the T-car.  As I understand it, in the case of the former, the Brit will be required to start the race with the fuel with which he was attempting to qualify.  If he starts from the pit lane then the team can choose his fuel load.

Both of these scenarios will hopefully allow him to demonstrate the overtaking with which he was synonymous in GP2.  He of course won both races in that class here last year after qualifying in third position. 

The importance of F1 qualifying at the Nurburgring is not clear-cut.  Only Michael Schumacher (twice) has taken race victory here from pole position in the last ten races. With at least a couple of recognised passing places on the circuit, I am not anticipating a procession tomorrow.

So the question is how well can Hamilton do? He can be backed to take an unlikely race victory tomorrow at 39/1 at Betfair, but be aware that the bet will stand whether he starts the race or not.

Alternatively he can be backed at 4/1 at Extrabet to finish on the podium. This interests me – if only because Extrabet are offering a bigger price than their competitors – but probably not enough to get involved. Their Sporting Rules also do not make it clear whether the bet will stand if Hamilton is unable to race.  I would advise anyone interested to contact Extrabet’s trading desk before committing any money.


Written by f1punter

July 21, 2007 at 4:47 pm

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