Formula 1: Against The Odds

What’s faster than a Ferrari?

with 2 comments

Usually nothing – is the answer.  Eleven races into the 2007 season and the DHL Fastest Lap Award looks almost certain to be heading to one of the drivers from the Italian marque. Raikkonen and Massa have so far collected all but three fastest race laps between them, sharing four apiece. Unsurprisingly McLaren have claimed the remainder: two set by Fernando Alonso and one by Lewis Hamilton.

This weekend sees F1 visit the relatively new Istanbul Park circuit for the Turkish Grand Prix.  Hopes are high in the Ferrari camp that the F2007 will be suited to the track and that they will prove to be more competitive than in recent races.

“There are three races in four weeks, plus a test: this is certain to be a very busy period, but we are racing on tracks which are amongst my favourites – Istanbul, Monza and Spa-Francorchamps. I think that these are tracks where Ferrari should be very competitive: there are no characteristics that are against us.” – Kimi Raikkonen

“I expect us to be much more competitive here and so I hope I can have a great qualifying and a great race.” – Felipe Massa

Whilst McLaren enjoyed success here in 2005, last year was very much a Ferrari show. Massa won the race from Pole Position and Michael Schumacher set the fastest lap.

Rather surprisingly the two Ferrari drivers can be backed in Sundays Fastest Lap Market at healthy odds:

Kimi Raikkonen @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes)
Felipe Massa @ 11/4 (BlueSq)

Given Massa’s fond memories of the circuit (last year was his debut pole and debut victory in F1) I have to admit to being tempted by BlueSq’s quote of 11/4. This would certainly appear better value statistically than the 7/4 about Kimi.  However there is a feeling that it is now-or-never for the Finn to impose himself on the Drivers’ Championship race and I am not keen to oppose him.

Thankfully there is a simple option. By dutching the two prices I can bet that either Ferrari sets the fastest lap of the race at a shade over 4/7 (1.58). This price would indicate that there was just a 63% chance of this happening, when it would appear that the true probability is significantly greater.


Written by f1punter

August 23, 2007 at 11:22 pm

2 Responses

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  1. It has just been pointed out to me that the odds for both drivers are even bigger at BWin.com.

    I really wish Oddschecker (price comparison) would list BWin. Or perhaps I should just be more thorough!


    August 23, 2007 at 11:54 pm

  2. […] What are the betting odds Ferrari’s Felipe Massa or Kimi Raikkonen will take the fastest lap in Istanbul? Yep, there’s an expert for that too. [F1 Punter] […]

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