Formula 1: Against The Odds

Australian Grand Prix Data Sheet

with 2 comments

pdf-icon.jpg As promised, here is the first in the series of data sheets that I will be producing in advance of each Grand Prix. Hopefully the statistics and trends that I have included will provide some useful pointers for those of you looking to have a bet.

Title: Australian Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 85.4kb

In the run up to the race weekend I will be posting my thoughts on where I feel there is any value in the market and hopefully identifying some decent bets.

The first few weeks of any season are always a little strange, as the new cars, drivers and regulations bed-in. During this period I am usually cautious with my staking. It is worth remembering though that bookmakers are in the same boat, meaning that their prices are often worthy of extra scrutiny.

Let me know what you think of the data sheet and whether you find it useful!


2 Responses

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  1. Magnificent! I’m very impress. I think that it provides a good overview of the race. Nevertheless, I would like to make some comments. I have some doubts about how useful are the last 10 seasons average data. Severals changes have been made on Formula 1 rules since 1998. The car reliability has been the key factor in last seasons so, maybe it could be useful an extra table for the last 5 seasons. Finally, I think that we must be careful about averaga data. Thus, for instance, the safety car have been used 12 times and 6 in the last 10 years and 5 years, respectively (i.e. average 1.2 for both periods of time). However, a careful inspection of these data shows that only two years of the last 5 years, the safety car was employed. When you put your money on “Will there be a safety car period during the race?) it does not matter how many safety cars will be on single race. you only need one to win (or lose). So, maybe it could be useful an extra cell like this “single safety car appereance in last 5 races : 2

    P.D. I hope that my thoughts can be understood since my english is not so good.


    March 12, 2008 at 9:41 am

  2. Thanks Moonsorrow. Good points. The purpose of making this data available was precisely so that others could draw their own conclusions from it. I actually considered doing five year averages, but was concerned that it perhaps wasn’t a big enough sample for it to be representative. In the end I decided to do ten year averages, but where there was a significant variation (like in the reliability example) I would point it out in the Key Trends section.

    In addition to making this data available, I still plan to do my own analysis (historical data is just one of the angles that I consider before making a bet) and that will be posted up in the next few days. The safety car conundrum is one of the things that I am currently mulling over!


    March 12, 2008 at 12:31 pm

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