Formula 1: Against The Odds

Albert Park Alternatives

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My main bet for the race is detailed here, but these are a few others that I have an interest in:

Alonso to finish in the points @ EVS (Coral)

Problems with his differential meant (to an extent) that Fernando Alonso qualified in an unfamiliar position outside of the top ten. However Timo Glock has since slid behind him after a couple of penalties and you would hope that the Spaniard would be able to out-race the qualifying specialist Jarno Trulli. That probably leaves a couple more positions to pick up, so not a penalty kick, but natural attrition gives him a fair chance in my book.

Part of the attractiveness of this bet is the standout position that Coral have taken; elsewhere he is odds-on across the board.

Safety Car to be deployed @ EVS (Interwetten)

Again the standout price at Interwetten is one of the features that that makes this bet attractive. Twelve safety cars have been seen here in the last ten years, with at least one deployed in six out of the last ten races.

We may have only seen the Mercedes tin-top in one of the last four races here (in 2006), but it was deployed four times! We had a clear run last year, so I figure that we are probably overdue. The removal of driver aids and the expected speed differentials at the start would also appear to increase the likelihood of an incident.

We saw red flags in Friday practice and again in Qualifying so I am happy to take an even money chance.

Kimi Raikkonen Fastest Lap @ 3.2 (Betfair)

If I had not been playing his race performance on the spreads then this would probably have been my main bet of the race. Kimi has set the fastest lap around here four times in the last six years and this has always been a market that I have followed him closely in.

His qualifying position shouldn’t hamper him too much, as in theory he only needs one lap of clear air to do it and of course I expect him to be charging hard. His main rivals would appear to be his teammate (who I have doubts about under the 2008 rules) and of course Lewis Hamilton. My hope is that – relatively unchallenged – Hamilton can manage the race pace from the front and won’t feel the need to push 100%. I suppose that the biggest risk is Kimi retiring, either for technical reasons or when attempting to pick his way through runners at the start. At odds of 3.2 I am willing to take the chance.

Elsewhere: Hamilton has a favourites chance of taking the race win, especially as he is ruthless at converting poles to wins. At 1.67, Victor Chandler are perhaps being just a shade generous and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking a bit of that.


Written by f1punter

March 15, 2008 at 8:27 pm

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