Formula 1: Against The Odds

Hamilton overpriced in Qualifying

with 4 comments

Despite Lewis Hamilton’s well publicised slump in form during the latter half of last season and his supposedly indifferent start to this one, his last ten qualifying grid positions have been: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 9th and 3rd. I think that is mightily impressive, with an average grid position of 2.5.

Yesterday’s practice sessions are deemed to have been a disaster according to the British press. Conveniently ignoring Hamilton’s own claim that McLaren “ran with heavy race fuel loads throughout the long runs in both sessions so the times don’t really mean that much”, the data seems to have been another nail in the coffin for the ‘he’s not as good as we thought’ brigade. Generally I give only slightly more credence to Friday testing results than I do to the sensationalist British media.

Oh and he spun. Or did we forget that practice sessions are the best place to find the limits of the track?

So instead let’s look at some facts. According to Norbert Haug (Vice President, Mercedes-Benz Motorsport), McLaren have completed in excess of 6,600kms of testing at the Circuit de Catalunya this season. In his debut season Lewis qualified fourth and raced to second here, whilst the lead McLaren was second on the grid. Ron Dennis has asked us to judge his team after Spain. Would he have said this if he expected them to be heavily off the pace here?

My only concern with Hamilton is his ability to perform under pressure and this is something I would like to think would improve with age and maturity. However, whilst he is clearly looking to bounce back here after a difficult Bahrain, I don’t think that we are at the do-or-die stage this early in the season for it to be an issue.

Lewis Hamilton can currently be backed at 9/1 with Betfair to take Pole Position, a feat that no other driver has achieved more frequently since he entered the sport. I would wager that not many expected those kinds of prices to be available this early in the season. There are plenty of options available for each-way terms or a top three slot too if you want to give deference to Ferrari’s apparently dominant package.


Written by f1punter

April 26, 2008 at 10:18 am

4 Responses

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  1. Couldn’t agree more. I was tempted by 9’s but felt he would have no need to top P3 with a low fuel run and just concentrate on his qualy run – which would only lead to more people jumping on the bandwagon. His odds have now been pushed out to 13’s which IMO most definitely represents some value.


    April 26, 2008 at 10:53 am

  2. I thought of you John as I wrote it. A trading price IMO.


    April 26, 2008 at 11:12 am

  3. he has lots to learn i believe . hes really an impressive driver


    April 27, 2008 at 2:46 am

  4. Norbert Haug has been known for his statements lol I find it funny that he was even mentioned in this article. Im not sure what to say about Hamilton.

    Car Quiz

    April 27, 2008 at 5:57 am

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