F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Fastest Lap upset in Turkey

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Everyone is predicting a Ferrari red-wash this weekend, but I think that one place where they are worth opposing is in the Fastest Lap market.

In the two previous Turkish grand prix Felipe Massa has won the race from pole-position but on neither occasion has he set the fastest race lap. Admittedly it has – on both occasions – been set by the sister Ferrari, but this year that car is piloted by Kimi Raikkonen who has seemed much more restrained in the pushing of his car to the limits during races.

The Finn seems to have reigned-in some of the showboating displayed earlier in his career and is perhaps showing a more pragmatic approach to winning the championship. This is demonstrated by the fact that he has only set one Fastest Lap this season – in the previous race in Barcelona where his car appeared vastly superior to the opposition. Felipe Massa is yet to set a Fastest Lap this year.

A big factor in the appeal of this bet is that both Ferraris have one-race old engines whilst their competitors McLaren have fresh ones. In addition the McLarens both have brand-new gearboxes compared with the three-race old (Massa) and four-race old (Raikkonen) ones in the Ferraris. I am sure that the age of these critical components must take something off the very top-end performance of the cars from Italy.

Heikki Kovalainen has already set two Fastest Laps in the first four races of the year and he impressed again in qualifying. I find it remarkable that he can be backed at 8/1 (Bet365) to repeat the feat. His teammate Lewis Hamilton will surely be in hot pursuit of Massa tomorrow and with his renowned fast starts and the clean side of the grid he could be a big player in the race. Lewis can be backed at 5/1 to set the Fastest Lap (Paddy Power, Coral and Ladbrokes).

My approach is to dutch both bets to give me a McLaren Fastest Lap bet at 13/5 (3.60). BMW fans might want to consider throwing in Robert Kubica at 11/1 but I think that the Beamers are just a shade off the pace here this weekend.

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Written by f1punter

May 10, 2008 at 4:28 pm

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