Formula 1: Against The Odds

Classified in Canada

with one comment

At a tough track like the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, it is always worth taking a look at markets based on drivers finishing, or not finishing the race. In the last ten years just 59.34% of the cars that lined up on the grid have been classified by the FIA at the finish of the race. Assuming that twenty cars line up on Sunday, we can roughly predict that on a historic-basis, twelve of them should be classified.

The 2008 season has seen on average 68.75% of drivers classified. This would equate to a likely 13.75 finishers on Sunday. However those figures are potentially skewed by the fact that we have visited car-friendly Hermann Tilke designed circuits three times in the first six races.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to lose at least car on the first lap. The last race in Monaco was peculiar this season in that it was the first race that did not see a first lap retiree. Here at Montreal, six out of the last ten races have seen at least one driver fail to complete the first lap. In 1998 we had lost five before a circuit had been completed!

Finally it is worth taking into account the long-range weather forecasts. With the proximity of the concrete walls to the track in Montreal, any rain will make the challenge of getting cars to the finish a tricky one.

PaddyPower are offering 6/4 that there will be twelve or fewer finishers in Sunday’s Canadian Grand Prix. I am happy to get involved at that price.


Written by f1punter

June 5, 2008 at 11:51 pm

One Response

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  1. […] negotiate his way through the pack, but a) Montreal is a circuit where passing is possible and b) I have already predicted that there will be a large number of retirements, potentially making his job […]

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