F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Guest Post: Kimi to win in France

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I’ve jumped in early and taken up to 11/8 about Kimi Raikonnen to win in Magny-Cours. He could have been backed at 6/4, but I missed the price (but I will be keeping an eye out for the rest of the week).

Luca Badoer topped both days of the recent Barcelona test, and the Ferrari has traditionally gone very well at the French circuit, winning five of the last seven races there. Kimi himself has a decent record here, winning last years race comfortably, and being denied a McLaren win over Schumacher a few years back, when he went wide on oil at Adelaide.

With Hamilton essentially a write-off, Kimi has his team-mate, Heikki and the Beemers to beat, and I am very confident he can get the job done.

For my money, this is one of Massa’s dodgy tracks, with him managing only a single Points finish (3rd) in six attempts. I think it will take reasonably exceptional circumstances for him to finish ahead of his team-mate.

Heikki has had an unfortunate season so far, and probably deserves to have a few more championship points in the bag. That said, he’s still not the complete package in terms of getting the best out of the car in a race, and the McLaren still seems a bit shy of the Ferrari, in terms of overall pace.

The Beemer’s are rock-solid, but again, I think I think they probably remain a few tenths off the Ferrari’s speed, and would need everything to fall into their lap (like Canada), to get the win.

Raikkonen banged in a series of Fastest Sectors (and the Fastest Lap) in Canada, before the Safety Car came out for Sutil, and I figure he would have gone very close to making a mockery of Lewis’ claim that “it was a breeze”. The IceMan came into this race last year, needing a win to get his championship challenge back on track, and although he is a lot closer this time around, similar circumstances prevail.

I think Kimi will dominate from Practice all the way through the weekend, and whilst we won’t join the super-rich at current odds, I think he will be an odds-on poke by the time Qualifying is finished next this time next Saturday.

Thanks for this guest post go to Grasshopper, who you will hopefully see contributing further to F1Punter over the coming weeks.  Keep your eyes peeled.

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Written by Grasshopper

June 14, 2008 at 9:33 pm

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