Formula 1: Against The Odds

Silverstone Best Of The Rest

with 3 comments

Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso lie next to each other, eighth and ninth in the championship respectively, with just two points separating them. Whilst the season has been the most consistent in memory for the Australian, it has been one of frustration for the Spaniard. Regardless it is likely that these two Renault-powered drivers will be fighting for the same bit of tarmac in today’s race.

My observations from qualifying would be that the two, whilst relatively closely matched, achieved their respective grid positions on different fuels loads. Once Mark Webber had placed third in Q2 and it was apparent that some of the principals were struggling, I believe that Red Bull identified the opportunity for a glory run. Knowing their driver’s strength over a single flying lap and conscious that this was a home race, I think that they dropped the fuel out. With provisional pole and only one driver left out on the track it very nearly worked.

Reading between the lines in his post-race comments, I think that Webber is realistic about the situation:

“Five percent of the job is done, but we’ve got a long race ahead of us tomorrow and we’re expecting to have some trouble keeping the Ferraris and McLarens behind us. But, we’re happy for now – this has been coming for a while, we’ve shown good consistency this year and the team’s done a good job.”

Fernando Alonso is no stranger this season to the glory run, with attempts in his two “home” races in Spain and Renault’s France. However following strong performances in the practice sessions and a solid sixth spot on the grid, I can’t see any reason to believe that this his position here is artificial:

“It was a difficult qualifying session with changeable track conditions, wind and rain, but we have done our maximum and so overall it’s a satisfying result for the team. If the race tomorrow takes place in normal conditions, we can hope to have a strong finish. If it rains, the race will be open and anything can happen. I must now prepare for that and will give my all once again to achieve a good result.”

Despite all of the above, the two are significantly different prices to achieve their goals in the race. This makes me want to oppose Webber with Alonso in some way. The most obvious would be a head-to-head match bet but the only place I have seen this priced up is with AdmiralBet (if I don’t drink enough milk…) where they make Webber a 1/2 shot and Alonso 6/4.

A better option would appear to be Bet365’s best of the rest market: a straight race for the flag with the exclusion of Ferrari, McLaren and BMW. This market is headed by Webber:

2.25 Mark Webber
3.75 Fernando Alonso
9.00 Sebastian Vettel
11.0 David Coulthard
11.0 Nelsinho Piquet

Whilst the potential for changeable conditions makes any bet a calculated risk, it is my believe that Fernando Alonso is the driver best-equipped in the field to handle the rain and I have backed him in the above market. His record at Silverstone is top class, with a first and two seconds in recent years. Webber on the other hand, who is clearly his main rival, has scored just one world championship point in his career here in Northamptonshire.

I am quite happy with 11/4. Thanks to Jo for scouting out this value.


Written by f1punter

July 6, 2008 at 11:21 am

3 Responses

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  1. The racing is exciting, but imo somewhat overshadowed by the news about Silverstone losing the Grand Prix:

    Donnington is a far nicer circuit than Silverstone. Only problem is that it’s gonna need a hell of a lot of work done to it. Gonna need a load more grandstands, far better toilet facilities, not to mention a huge improvement for traffic getting in and out. Hopefully they don’t completely lose the charm of it by covering it in concrete.

    Anyway… Best lap EVER was Senna at Donnington in 1993!!!

    F1 Bets

    July 6, 2008 at 1:01 pm

  2. A great lap for sure. Is Donnington long enough and wide enough for competitive F1 racing? I am going to miss Maggots and Becketts for sure.

    Just need Alonso to jump Jarno here.


    July 6, 2008 at 1:17 pm

  3. Barrichello is going to really spoil my day today.


    July 6, 2008 at 1:25 pm

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