Formula 1: Against The Odds

It’s All About Kimi

with one comment

Hamilton’s blinding pole-position lap yesterday should have been the sole headline-generator from the weekend so far; but plenty is being made too of the struggles that Kimi Raikkonen is again having with the Hockenheimring circuit. With the markets being comprehensively shaken up after qualifying, I think that there are opportunities for money to be made from the Finn.

The Race Win

This would seem optimistic given Hamilton’s dominance of testing, Friday practice and qualifying. However three questions have been churning around my mind since the end of yesterday’s session:

1. What are the respective fuel loads of the two main championship rivals?
2. How much more competitive over longer runs is the Ferrari over the McLaren?
3. When was the last time you could back Kimi Raikkonen’s Ferrari at 12/1?

Now the realist in me looks at the fact that Kimi is likely to spend the first few laps of the race in a Trulli-train and it would appear that the root-cause of his problems have been set-up related – which of course will not have been solved in the overnight parc-fermé conditions. However I think that there is the likelihood that Raikkonen will trade lower than 12/1 in-running and that is where I am looking to capitalise.

Kimi admitted after qualifying that the car felt better on lowfuel. By taking a punt that he is running longer than the cars in front of him (Trulli/Alonso almost certainly and hopefully some or all of others) a situation should arise where Kimi is yet to stop, much closer to the front than sixth and lapping at good speed (as the car set-up comes to him). That should cause enough confusion in the market to trade out for a profit.

The Fastest Lap

I flagged this one up earlier in the week, but after yesterday’s session the price has drifted out to 13/8 with some major bookies. Six on the bounce, two on the trot here in Mannheim – I still think that this is a cracking bet. Looking at the six fastest laps that he has set so far this season, they have all come right at the end of stints before a fuel stop or the race finished. Following on from the logic above, hopefully around Lap 20ish, Kimi will have a light car, a clear track and will be pushing towards his first stop. I am on.

First Retirement

Ok, following all the positivity above, here is a counter angle, a hedge and a speculative punt. PaddyPower and Bet365 both make Kimi Raikkonen the joint-least likely driver to retire from the race first at 33/1. Kimi has raced an F1 car around Hockenheim five times; he has retired from four of those races and been the first (or joint first) retirement on no less than three occasions. The Finn has had his application called in to question before when things are not going his way and with the possibility for Trulli-train frustration early on in the race (or the alternative of Kamikaze moves in the first few laps) 33/1 has to be worth a punt.


Written by f1punter

July 20, 2008 at 10:35 am

One Response

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  1. Got this one all wrong. Last throw off the dice. Backed Hamilton in running at 4/1 after his 2nd stop.


    July 20, 2008 at 1:16 pm

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