F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Hungary: Early Prices

with 4 comments

The markets are still forming in advance of Sunday’s Hungarian Grand Prix so I’ve been scouting around on oddschecker for some early value.

Safety Car

According to my records we have only seen one Safety Car in Hungary in the last ten years (in 2006). On that occasion morning drizzle at the track saw the drivers racing on wet tyres. With the long range forecast (weather.com) predicting a dry weekend, I am surprised to see SkyBet go 5/6 either way on the Safety Car being deployed.

Lap of First Retirement

A spate of first lap retirements at the start of this season has seen this market shift downwards. For Sunday’s race Bet365 are offering the following odds:

Lap of First Retirement
Under 1.5 Laps @ 4/7
Over 1.5 Laps @ 5/4

Following Hockenheim, the average number of laps completed before the first of retirement in 2008 is seven. In the last ten years at the Hungaroring only three races have seen a retirement in the first two laps and on average 8.5 laps have been completed before the first driver begins the walk back to the pits. Have Bet365 got their prices wrong?

Honda

Jenson Button recorded his first (and so far only) win around here in a Honda and generally this is a circuit where the Japanese team have gone well. Since 2004 the team (both in the final year of BAR and as the factory outfit) have managed to place six cars in the points from eight attempts.

The Budapest circuit requires the cars to be set up with a significant amount of downforce and it is in this trim that we have probably seen the Honda to its best effect this season – sixth in Monaco and seventh in Canada – discounting the wet race at Silverstone.

Extrabet make both Honda drivers 5/1 shots to record a points-paying finish, or of course 5/2 coupled.

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Written by f1punter

July 29, 2008 at 11:13 pm

4 Responses

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  1. I do not agree with your thoughts about Honda scoring points. In mi opinion, Honda have scored points in Monaco and Canada due to the presence of the safety car.It is difficult to believe that the japanese team can score some points in a circuit where the safety car is not usual. In addition, it must be taken into account that Honda have difficulties to advance Q2 and Toro Rosso have a better car than in the past.

    Moonsorrow

    July 30, 2008 at 10:23 am

  2. I think that that is a fair point Moonsorrow. Barrichello did manage to qualify in the top ten in Canada though and Button was just outside at Monaco. Certainly if something like 17 cars finish the race then it will be tricky. Does the price reflect that chance though?

    f1punter

    July 30, 2008 at 7:49 pm

  3. As with blog Flutterfly I must congratulate you on an excellent and informative blog. I have a mate who is a Formula 1 nut who looks at all the statistics and conditions, prices etc before making a selection. I will certainly be reading this before speaking to him on race weekends.

    I have given your blog a mention and a link on my blog http://tradeonsports.blogspot.com

    Keep up the good work

    Pete Nordsted

    July 31, 2008 at 9:44 am

  4. Thanks Pete, very kind.

    f1punter

    August 2, 2008 at 8:48 am


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