Formula 1: Against The Odds

Hungary, Hamilton and Hot Weather

with 2 comments

With high temperatures predicted all weekend, I think we can get after Lewis Hamilton a little bit, despite him topping practice times yesterday afternoon.

Whilst there is little doubt that Lewis has dominated the last two races, I think the weather may have been a contributing factor in both successes. Obviously, the Ferrari pit-lane debacle at Silverstone essentially gifted Hamilton the British Grand Prix, but there was no denying Lewis a top-drawer performance at Hockenheim, in overcast conditions. In both races, I think the Ferrari may not have been shown to best effect, as I think their car needs high ambient and track temperatures, in order to get the best out of its tyres. They didn’t get those types of conditions in either of the last two races, but seem pretty sure to get them in Budapest, where the super-soft seems to be the tyre of choice for the weekend.

I think this works in Ferrari’s favour two ways. Firstly, it should allow them to extract the most from their own car (which I refuse to believe has suddenly dropped 4/10ths off the McLaren pace, and secondly, the McLaren (or Lewis’ driving of the car, at least) is very hard on its rear-tyres – particularly the soft ones which will be the dominant selection in the given conditions (‘soft’ and ‘supersoft’ the likely mix that will be adopted). Add in the nature of the Hungaroring’s tight, twisting circuit to the equation, and the McLaren’s could find themselves in a spot of trouble with tyre management during the race.

All that said, the McLaren is clearly very quick around here (traditionally been a good venue for the team) and there is obviously every chance that Hamilton can land the silver car on Pole today. That being the case, I’ve decided to play in the Quali/Win markets, and have backed the Lewis/Kimi double at an average of just over 11/1, with a small saver on Kimi/Kimi at around the same price. I’ve also laid Hamilton in the Win market at 1.95, and will look to go in again (harder) if he nails Pole this afternoon.

I’ve also laid Nick Heidfeld in the Points market at 1.68. Quick Nick has been complaining about tyre graining throughout practice, and does not appear comfortable with the handling of the car, despite finishing ahead of Kubica in second practice yesterday. Though the track confirmation and anticipated temperatures should help Nick overcome his problems with getting heat into the tyres for Qualifying, I get the feeling that the BMW has just been starting to fall back into the clutches of Toyota, Red Bull and the Renaults over the last two or three races, and I can see him starting from a disadvantageous position on Sunday. I’ve therefore also laid a small piece at 1.42 for him to miss out on the Top 10 Quali positions.


Written by Grasshopper

August 2, 2008 at 8:46 am

2 Responses

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  1. nice blog!


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    August 4, 2008 at 10:34 pm

  2. Thanks for the comment, rc.

    Not too sure if we were lucky or good with the call on Hamilton’s tyres – Bridgestone haven’t exactly been issuing conclusive statements about the cause of the deflation – but we got the job done.

    We were in a strong position going into the race anyway, after laying Heidfeld in the Q3 market at 1.42 and in the Points at 1.68, so you could say that Hamilton’s problem was merely the icing on the cake. Hopefully we’ll get as good a result in Valencia in a few weeks time.



    August 5, 2008 at 4:44 pm

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