F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Pointless Kubica?

with 2 comments

It was a somewhat peculiar session at Spa this morning, for me. Low ambient and track temperatures should have favoured the McLaren, but the Ferrari showed its historical strength at this circuit, with Massa and Raikkonen leading the way and the McLaren’s around 6/10ths off the pace. Market-wise, it’s all going to form then – insofar as the main culprits are concerned at least – and with only a 20% chance of rain predicted for Quali and none predicted for the race itself, I’m inclined to look elsewhere.

The man I think we need to get after this weekend is Robert Kubica.

BMW have been falling back into the midfield at an alarming rate of knots over the last few races, and first practice today has not done anything to dispel that notion. Kubica and Hedifeld are mired in 11th and 12th respectively after this morning’s skirmishes, with only half-a-tenth between their times. Crucially though, both Renaults, both STRs, Glock’s Toyota and Webber’s Red Bull all posted faster times – along with the Ferraris and Maccas. A pit-radio exchange between Kubica and his engineer, perhaps points to the mountain they have to climb this weekend. Kubica said “The car is nowhere – it is not working”. Heidfeld’s was only moderately more circumspect in his pit-radio assessment, saying that tyre pressures were an issue.

The Betfair market for Q3 is unfortunately very embryonic at this stage – something that is irritatingly familiar. As I write, Kubica is only 1.02 to Back in the Q3 market, but 3.0 on the Lay side, with paltry liquidity in the market generally. I’ve therefore focused on the more robust Points market and have laid Kubica at odds of 1.35.

For me, there is absolutely no way that he is a 3’s-on shot at this stage for a Points position on Sunday, given he is likely to meet with fierce competition from all of the midfield runners, as well as his own team-mate. He will be doing extremely well to qualify in the top six, imo, and I think laying him at the current price will give us, as an absolute bare minimum, a trading option immediately after Qualification.

If proper, old-fashioned Spa-rain looks like arriving for Sunday, I might look to get Massa in the Points market where he currently trades at odds-on, but otherwise I’ll probably content myself with opposing Kubica.

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Written by f1punter

September 5, 2008 at 10:52 am

2 Responses

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  1. […] source: F1 Punter […]

    Pointless Kubica? | F1 NEWS

    September 6, 2008 at 6:12 am

  2. […] of the Quick Nick 06Sep08 In Grasshopper’s article yesterday he covered the problems that BMW seemed to be having extracting a competitive time from […]


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