Formula 1: Against The Odds

Tough Top Ten in Fuji

with one comment

With cool but dry weather predicted this weekend, I’d expect the McLaren’s and Ferrari’s to be fighting out the finish of the race, and will be looking elsewhere for a wager.

Unfortunately, the Japanese race seems to have acquired an unusually low-profile since it’s move to Toyota’s circuit in the foothills of Mount Fuji, and the market I want to play (Q3 Top Ten) isn’t exactly fluid as I write 12 hours before Qualification. I therefore don’t have any prices to recommend, but I do think we can take-on the BMW’s this weekend by laying them on Betfair.

First and second Practice isn’t always representative, and it’s a fair bet that Glock topping the P2 charts earlier today says a bit more to do with sponsor appeasement, than it does about the German’s chances at a Pole run tomorrow. However, it would be dangerous to dismiss the performance entirely, as it has become increasingly clear that there is little to separate the middle-tier teams. And it’s my estimation that BMW are much closer to the middle-tier, than they are to the top-tier, as they almost certainly stopped development on the 2008 car several weeks ago.

With it being so tight in the midfield, the smallest setbacks can have a bigger than intended impact, and Nick Heidfeld didn’t appear to have too much luck this morning. He spun in the first session, and says that the car lacked overall balance in both Practice sessions. Not only that, but he had technical problems with both brake-balance and hydraulics, which limited his track time in P2. Despite going reasonably well here last season (Qualified in 5th) the circumstances were somewhat different to this year; he was in a car much better than those in the midfield around him, and it suited his driving style much better than the 2008 Beemer. After managing only 14th and 19th respectively in Free Practice, I think he is one we need to be opposing, and I’ve put up an offer on Betfair of 1.22 (bigger than Vettel and Alonso) in the hope that someone will take it.

Kubica was consistently outperformed in Practice and Qualification by his team-mate at the venue last year (finished 10th in Qualification), and could muster no better than 8th and 11th during Practice today – complaining of lack of grip. He needs to be opposed for broadly the same reasons as his team-mate, and I’ve offered 1.2.

With only ten spots available, I think the BMW drivers can expect stiff opposition from all of Hamilton, Massa, Raikkonen, Kovalainen, Alonso, Vettel, Glock, Trulli and Webber too, and I definitely think we can get one of them at least, turfed in Q2.

We just need to get matched at a scandalously low price!


Written by Grasshopper

October 10, 2008 at 4:52 pm

One Response

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  1. I hope you got matched Grasshopper. Heidfeld was easy and there was a time in Q2 when I thought you might have snared Kubica too.


    October 11, 2008 at 2:53 pm

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