Formula 1: Against The Odds

One last bet in Brazil

with 4 comments

This is not a race where betting is a particularly attractive proposition for me and given its profile, I suspect that the odds-compilers have spent just a touch longer researching their quotes than normal.

With the benefit of hindsight, Felipe Massa was probably worth supporting at 9/2 in the championship going in to this weekend, with Hamilton continuing to show his frailties when the pressure is applied. Nothing surprises me in Formula 1 any more and if Massa were victorious then it would be mild surprise at best. Still, 3/1 is not a value price with him needing to make up seven points in one race. I can let it go.

Looking just slightly away from title race, although to a driver whom I am sure would like to have a say in proceedings, Fernando Alonso is a driver who has shown excellent form both recently and at Interlagos in the past. At times during this week he has been odds-on for a podium finish, but a slightly disappointing qualifying session has seen odds as big as 11/4 offered.

In the last five Brazilian Grand Prix, the man from Oviedo has finished 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 3rd. In putting together that sequence he has made up a net twelve positions during the race from his qualifying grid slots. That equates to 2.4 positions per race. Today he starts from sixth in the unusual position of having a driver ahead of him whose goal is not simply to finish on the podium. Given that driver is Lewis Hamilton, a regular occupant of one of the three steps, the Spaniard’s chances of a podium would appear to be increased.

The possibility of rain adds an element of uncertainty to any bet, but with Alonso looking to gain positions rather than maintain them, a stroke of good fortune will not go amiss. The fact that his supreme car control is likely to give him an advantage in slippery conditions compared with at least some of his rivals means that I am not dissuaded from having a bet.

One factor that I believe has been overplayed in the media is the likelihood of a coming together with Lewis Hamilton. I’m sure there is part of Alonso’s make-up that would like to avenge his treatment at McLaren last year. Whilst the British-media crowed about his inability to cope with Lewis Hamilton’s “equal” status within the team, I’m sure Alonso would have given his right arm for just that. However, I refuse to believe that Fernando would be so unprofessional as to deliberately collide with the Brit. He may, that is racing, but it is not something significant enough to factor into my decision to bet on him.

My final wager of the 2008 F1 season: Fernando Alonso to finish on the podium in Brazil – 11/4 (Betfair).


Written by f1punter

November 2, 2008 at 1:12 pm

4 Responses

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  1. Alonso’s done a good job for you towards the end of the season – Good work! Hope you enjoyed the race and it’s been good reading your blog through the season.
    All the best, John


    November 2, 2008 at 8:45 pm

  2. Fantastic blog. Looking forward to reading your thoughts next year!


    November 2, 2008 at 11:44 pm

  3. Thanks John and likewise.

    Cheers Max.


    November 3, 2008 at 10:27 pm

  4. […] This was a bet that I liked post-qualifying last year and following the Spaniard’s second place finish, he is now sitting on five podiums from his last six (of seven) starts at Interlagos. With Button occupying a similar position to Hamilton last year, in that winning is not as important as simply collecting some points, a similar bet looks a good place to start the weekend. […]

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