Formula 1: Against The Odds

Alonso a Diffuser User?

with 4 comments

With the “DDD3” having had their evolutionary parts deemed legal, it seems that the status quo is almost certain to sustain for the Chinese Grand Prix.

Or does it?

The answer is most probably “Yes”, but I feel we can roll the dice, and take a small chance on SkyBet’s 25/1 about Fernando Alonso prevailing on Sunday – albeit as an option price for a trade.

Some positive noises are emanating from the Renault garage, and the suggestion is that they will be ready to run with their own double-decker diffuser for the Chinese Grand Prix. Technical Director Bob Bell has mentioned some “interesting developments”, and whilst he has tempered enthusiasm by suggesting that the revised rear-end won’t “take us to the front of the field just yet”, it suggests a certain confidence that a significantly improved package will be ready for Shanghai.

Alonso is clearly 25/1 for a reason, but if the revised R29 can provide the Spaniard with more mechanical and aero grip than it has of late, then Alonso’s inherent race-craft could be enough to put him in amongst the front runner early doors, which should be sufficient for us to either trade for profit, or cover stakes with a free run at the win. On this basis, I’ve also taken the 11/2 with the same form about a Podium spot for Fernando.

If Renault choose not to deploy the DDD – or it bombs in practice – then these bets can probably be written-off before midnight on Friday.


Written by Grasshopper

April 15, 2009 at 9:41 pm

4 Responses

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  1. I share your theory about alonsos podium chances. He has started top 10 both races, one of few using KERS and chances of rain speeks in favor of alonso. And if they show up with some good improvements I think 6.3 (sorry for not using fraction) is a good bet for pudium. If they don´t show to be that strong, I don´t think the odds will change that much..


    April 16, 2009 at 1:48 pm

  2. Well positioned now Grasshopper. That was a Stellar job given how late in the day it was fitted. Fernando showing his class again.


    April 18, 2009 at 7:55 am

  3. Yep, we seem to be in reasonably good shape, F1punter.

    I’ll be letting both the Win and Podium wagers ride for the time being, as I think Alonso will trade at shorter during the race itself. I reckon Fernando is probably fueled lightest of the front-runners, and can envisage a scenario where he jumps Vettel at the start, and builds a bit of a gap on lowering fuel during the first stint. I’ll probably look to cover my bets at that stage, should it transpire that way.


    April 18, 2009 at 9:16 am

  4. I think Christian Horner’s comments are interesting. My guess is that the two Red Bulls are light and will start on the soft tyres. This will help them get off the line and pitting early will mean that they only have to use the super-softs for a few laps. Mind you, Alonso could well be doing the same and he is one driver I wouldn’t rule out passing another.


    April 18, 2009 at 9:42 am

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