Formula 1: Against The Odds

Chinese Fastest Lap

with 2 comments

Mark Webber and Nico Rosberg are both best priced 12/1 to set the fastest lap in tomorrow’s Chinese Grand Prix. That is a price that is worth a second look.

Mark Webber has set the second fastest lap of the weekend so far (1:35.173 in Q2). The only man who has gone quicker is his team-mate and then by just four one-hundredths of a second. Vettel is best-priced 5/1 and I’m happy where the comparative value lies. This is reinforced when we look at the individual sector times and the theoretical fastest lap that could have been achieved in qualifying. If all of the drivers had managed to string their very best three sectors together, then no-one would have lapped faster than the Australian (1:35.090).

Webber set the fifth-fastest lap in the last race in Malaysia and the eight-fastest in Australia – which was all the more remarkable given the damage to his car. He is a man renowned for his speed over a single lap. Can he produce it in tomorrow’s race?

Nico Rosberg admittedly hasn’t looked quite as quick as the Red Bulls so far this weekend, but this market is a bit of a speciality of his (although to a lesser degree than Kimi Raikkonen and Nick Heidfeld). I’m hoping that the competitiveness of the Williams may see that latter point change though. Rosberg already has the fastest lap of the Australian Grand Prix under his belt this season and he was a very respectable fourth quickest in Malaysia.

One of the reasons that I was attracted to these two drivers is because of the discrepancies in price across the market. Nico Rosberg is as short as 6/1 in places, whilst Ladbrokes punters would only be getting 8/1 about Mark Webber.

One factor that is preventing me from committing to these bets is the weather. With an increasing likelihood of rain playing some part in the race, I’m not sure that these are the two drivers or that this is even a market with which I want to be involved. For that reason, I am happy to take a watching brief until close to the start time in the morning. There is a chance that the market will have balanced itself out by then and the 12/1 is no longer available, but I’m happy to take that risk over the gamble on the weather.

Any thoughts about this approach, these drivers or this market?


Written by f1punter

April 18, 2009 at 4:57 pm

2 Responses

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  1. betting on Fastest lap is more or less like rolling a dice. The malaysian laptimes i think could have ben faster if it wasnt for the rain. I think many driver would have produced a faster lap before the second pitstop (we how he track looked then).

    A few drivers have a good shot at taking the fastest lap. Webber, vettel, button, rosberg… But looking at the odds button seems to be the publics favorite along with rubens and vettel. That makes Webber and rosbergs odds 12/1 very interesting. Rosberg has been fastest before but that was on an completly differnt track. In this race, i would go for webber.


    April 19, 2009 at 6:29 am

  2. Good points Andreas. I’m happy to leave the bet alone in these conditions.


    April 19, 2009 at 6:35 am

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