Formula 1: Against The Odds

Red Bull Fighting For Victory

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Practically every team brings upgraded packages to Barcelona, and given how close the cars have been running pace-wise, it’s not impossible that there will be a few surprises this weekend. I’m therefore inclined to take it easy stakes-wise, whilst still believing that the current front-runners can reasonably be expected to deliver.

Again, I’m not convinced that the advantage the Brawn GP cars have over the field is accurately reflected in the various race markets. Indeed, I’m of the opinion that the Red Bulls are probably now bang-on the pace of the Brawn and at the available odds, my plays this weekend are based around Vettel, but mainly Webber.

Totesport are taking a bit of a chance on the Aussie in the Win market, in my opinion. Webber can backed at 20/1 for the race win, compared to mere 4/1 about his team-mate. Whilst Vettel has clearly delivered more than Webber so far this year, the price differential is a nonsense, because there simply isn’t that much between them; and 20/1 is simply too big to ignore. At worst, we should be able to lay the Australian at much shorter during the race.

I think that Webber can be in the mix from the outset, as he is a great qualifier: and I’ve taken the 14/1 available about him getting Pole Position. Although he has yet to finish in front of his team-mate in Quali this season, it has tended to be very close after fuel correction and it’s again a case of taking 14/1 over 4/1.

To round-off, I’ve done the pair reversed in the Pole/Win markets at 33/1 (Webber/Vettel) and 50/1 (Vettel/Webber).

The Brawns will be a big danger, no doubt, but I just feel that the RBR will be well-suited to this circuit, where areodynamic performance is so critical.

My only roll of the dice in terms of a ‘surprise’, is in the Q3 market, where I’ve taken SkyBet’s 6/1 and 7/1 respectively about Buemi and Bourdais. The latter has made some positive noises about the updates they have on the car for Spain, and Buemi has already proven he can muscle the motor into Q3.

It’s a Red-Bull-arama for me this weekend.


Written by Grasshopper

May 6, 2009 at 10:01 pm

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