F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Young Guns at Monaco

with 5 comments

I think that there is a very real possibility that Sebastian Vettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix. The Red Bull looks to be the most mechanically proficient car this season and this weekend, for the first time, Adrian Newey has bolted on a double-decker diffuser.

What’s more the young German has been qualifying superbly this season, holding the upper-hand with acknowledged one-lap king Mark Webber. The Monte Carlo circuit of course rewards pole-sitters handsomely and the Red Bull pilot will relish that given his record for turning first on the grid into first across the line.

Vettel is currently best-priced at 100/30 with Stan James. I’ve looked at that price hard. I see no more likely winner of the race, including the bookmaker’s favourite Button. However, with three practice sessions, three qualifying sessions and seventy-eight race laps between now and payout, there is not a lot of margin for error. I’m kind of hoping that someone else does a low fuel run on Thursday and the price eases a touch.

Of much more interest to me is Lewis Hamilton. The [still] young Briton has an absolutely astonishing record around his favourite circuit. In five races here (F3, GP2 and F1) he has four wins and a second. McLaren have an equally strong record here, winning three of the last four races and five of the last nine.

This season has been tough for Hamilton, but there is almost universal acknowledgement that it is the car and not the driver at fault. At times this season the McLaren Mercedes has looked well-balanced and drivable, just painfully slow. No racetrack in the world will reward a slow car, but Monaco may just be the place where the penalty is felt least.

Hamilton is available at 16/1 to win on Sunday with both Coral and Totesport and I feel that there is plenty of scope for this price to shorten throughout the weekend.

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Written by f1punter

May 20, 2009 at 8:02 pm

5 Responses

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  1. Boyles are offering moneyback if Jensen Button wins the race as well, with 3/1 Vettel (price from pre-practice).

    Scott

    May 20, 2009 at 10:31 pm

  2. Boyles are one of the few firms left offering 1/4 odds each way too.

    f1punter

    May 21, 2009 at 5:11 am

  3. For me the most interesting thing in your post is the comment about Vettel’s price easing out if someone else does a low fuel qualy run. This is something I’ve been doing a lot of research into lately and picking your time to enter the market seems more crucial than anything else these days. I will send you and e-mail later on.

    Flutterly

    May 21, 2009 at 6:53 am

  4. Hamilton is best priced 8/1 with the fixed odds firms tonight. Vettel out to over 4/1.

    f1punter

    May 21, 2009 at 5:35 pm

  5. I might end-up doing my plums, but I am taking Hamilton on at current odds. That kind of price after Free Practice is all wrong, imo.

    Grasshopper

    May 22, 2009 at 9:47 am


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