Formula 1: Against The Odds

Silverstone Sunday Summary

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I’ve been doing a bit of analysis on Qualifying runs and declared fuel – using La Canta Magnifico’s Fuel Fing – in an effort to forecast pit-stop schedules. Here’s the output:

Lap 15: Nakajima
Lap 16: Alonso, Raikonnen
Lap 17: Button, Trulli
Lap 18: Glock, Barrichello, Webber
Lap 19: Rosberg
Lap 20: Vettel, Heidfeld, Hamilton
Lap 21: Fisichella
Lap 23: Buemi
Lap 24: Massa
Lap 27: Piquet
Lap 29: Kubica, Bourdais
Lap 31: Sutil
Lap 32: Kovalainen

With the race being 60 laps, the BMW drivers look like they are on split strategies and with Kubica not all that far outside the top-ten in Q3 yesterday, I will be keeping an eye on his price in the Points market (current 9/4 not entirely appealing). I will also be looking to chase both Raikkonen and Alonso out of the Points at around even money the pair.

I’ve also taken a chance that the predicted cool temperatures will handicap the Brawns a touch and have laid Barrichello at 1.64 for a Podium spot and backed Rosberg at a shade over 10/1 in the same market.

Finally, I think Webber is a big price at 12/1 to lead after the first lap. He is on the correct side of the grid to overhaul Barrichello in second (who has suffered start-line problems in Melbourne and Istanbul) and his lighter fuel load could well give him a chance to draft Vettel down Hangar Straight, going into Stowe.


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