F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Safety First in Germany

with 5 comments

When the Formula 1 circus last rolled up to the Nürburgring, the previous ten visits had seen the Safety Car deployed just twice. Once in the wet of 1999 and once in the dry of 2006. The top price for a no-show was 8/11 and I was happy to take that. Unfortunately the rain came again and following a crazy opening to the the race, by the third lap my bet was up in smoke.

It has played host to the Grand Prix of Luxembourg and the European Grand Prix in the past, but this year – badged as the German Grand prix – the modern circuit retains the same characteristics: wide run-off areas and half an eye on safety. The track’s layout should mean that it is difficult to cause Safety Car inducing blockages.

Weather forecasting has always struck me as more art than science, with all the creative licence that entails. Long-distance forecasting even more so. But today at least, Weather.com is predicting a zero-chance of precipitation this weekend. That would be nice.

Perhaps bookmakers have been swayed by the fact that Bernd Maylander has been called in to action on his last two visits here. Perhaps, by the fact that most of the betting public prefer to bet on a positive outcome rather than a negative one. Or perhaps it is through no more than lazy odds-compiling and being content with a margin. Whatever the cause, all of the firms quoting appear to have priced the market as follows:

Safety Car to be Deployed
5/6 Yes
5/6 No

Even ignoring the wet weather factor, my records (which go back to 1997) show that only three Safety Cars have been deployed in six-hundred and ninety-four laps of racing here. I’m happy to take 5/6 that we’ll get through another sixty without one.

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Written by f1punter

July 7, 2009 at 8:13 pm

5 Responses

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  1. Where’d you get these odds from by the way?

    I’m willing to take a punt on the emergence of a SC, probably on the first lap as they all head into the incredibly tight first corner. If they all make it through there unscathed I’m willing to eat my hat!

    Dank

    July 9, 2009 at 7:50 am

  2. Here is as good place as any to compare odds Dank: http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/safety-car

    When opposing the Safety Car, the first corner is always the most nail-biting. Historically it hasn’t been a problem here, but that far from rules it out.

    f1punter

    July 9, 2009 at 6:33 pm

  3. Go easy on that hat Dank! A good day for you otherwise I guess? 🙂

    f1punter

    July 12, 2009 at 6:34 pm

  4. Omnomnom… what a tasty hat 🙂

    Was going to put £10 on Webber to win with odds at 13/2, wish I had now. Damn it!

    Dank

    July 12, 2009 at 9:17 pm

  5. Hey, Odds on the weather playing up in the qualifling would have been better. That rain managed to keep off the course for the race. Shame, it might have spiced things up, tho really please Mark got his first win! 🙂

    Fi

    July 14, 2009 at 1:17 pm


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