F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Hungary for Success

with 5 comments

With the likelihood that at least one of the Red Bull cars will be disadvantaged by having to run in dirty air and neither Button nor Barrichello dominating in the way that they did earlier in the season, I wonder whether we might see an unfamilliar face standing on the podium this weekend?

Certainly the bookmakers are backing Lewis Hamilton to upset the status quo, with many quoting single figure prices for him to take victory. I like their thinking, if not their odds.

Their actions have forced me to take another look at the market and one name jumped off the page: Kimi Raikkonen. Perhaps surprisingly given his forgotten-man status?

The Hungaroring presents a near unique challenge in Formula 1. Its tight, twisty nature is compared most frequently to Monaco. Of course it was in streets of the principality where the Finn recorded his best result of the season so far, finishing on the podium having qualified in second.

Perhaps a return to a high downforce setup will hinder the Ferrari less than has appeared to be the case at Silverstone and the Nurburgring?

Raikkonen’s personal record around the Budapest circuit is certainly impressive:

2008: Podium (3rd)
2007: Podium (2nd)
2006: Pole Position (then first lap accident)
2005: Winner
2004: Retired (electrical)
2003: Podium (2nd)
2002: Fourth
2001: Seventh (in a Sauber)

With that record, I believe that Sportingbet are taking a risk by offering a standout 8/1 for a Kimi podium. It is certainly where I will start my weekend’s betting.

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Written by f1punter

July 21, 2009 at 5:17 pm

5 Responses

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  1. I suspect that Red Bull will have the edge still regardless of the weather. The RB5 does seem to suffer in turbulent air, but I can see either Vettel or Webber grabbing pole and leading from there onwards.

    Odds on a Red Bull victory are low at 10/11, so Webber at 9/2 is probably not a bad one to back.

    Dank

    July 22, 2009 at 10:21 am

  2. The bookmakers are still factoring Webber’s luck in to his price! I agree with you though.

    F1Punter

    July 22, 2009 at 11:23 am

  3. […] weekend, then you might be able to glean something from F1 Punter’s latest two posts – Hungary for Success and Another Podium Possibility. The latter features Timo Glock, which will make the aforementioned […]

  4. I’ve traded out at 1.2. This is looking a tough race on the cars and we’re less than half way through.

    f1punter

    July 26, 2009 at 12:55 pm

  5. There was late money on Betfair opposing a Kimi podium. The stewards still have a decision to make. Happy to have traded out.

    f1punter

    July 26, 2009 at 1:57 pm


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