Formula 1: Against The Odds

Podium Punts for Unpredictable Spa

with one comment

An extremely interesting qualifying session has blown the markets wide open for tomorrow’s race. I’m writing this before the fuel weights are out, but I’m already pretty pleased with my Raikkonen bet. If he can gain a couple of places in the opening laps – utilising his KERS – then I think that he is well placed for a podium finish (unexpected Spa Francochamps occurrences withstanding).

What I am going to do, is take the opportunity to defend this bet with some big price outsiders. Currently on offer, to secure a podium are:

Lewis Hamilton – 9/1 (Totesport)
Fernando Alonso – 28/1 (Bet365 and Totesport)
Adrian Sutil – 33/1 (Boylesports)

All three drivers failed to make Q3, which does mean that they can run an optimum fuel strategy in the race. This in turn increases the chance that they can benefit from any Safety Car period. All three drivers have in the past put in strong performances in wet weather – which should never be ruled out in the Ardennes mountains. Last but not least, Spa is a circuit where it is possible to overtake.

Individually, I also believe they have things going for them despite their disappointing Saturday:

Lewis Hamilton – Has KERS fitted, which will lend itself to the overtaking that he clearly enjoys so much. Equally in the longer running in Friday’s FP2 he was able to top the time-sheets which offers some encouragement.

Fernando Alonso – Less obvious as to why the Spaniard will have a good weekend, but if the weather and Safety Cars start playing a part then there is no-one that I would want more trying to exploit the situation – especially at 28/1

Adrian Sutil – Nobody will be more disappointed than the German with how Qualifying panned out, but if you are going to miss out on Q3 then eleventh position is the place to be. Sutil has a car underneath him that was fast enough to take Pole Position, but has none of the fuel compromises that his team-mate will have to deal with. Over the weekend he has shown great pace in the first and third sectors that hopefully makes him less vulnerable to the KERS cars than others in the field.

None of these bets are mortgage-jobs, but they do offer some protection to any bets that have already been struck in case the race turns out as unexpectedly as qualifying did.


One Response

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  1. Sutil has 30kg more fuel than his team-mate. Hamilton is near-brim-full.


    August 29, 2009 at 4:40 pm

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