Formula 1: Against The Odds

Suzuka Safety Car Scarcity

with 3 comments

This weekend sees Formula 1 make a welcome return to the more familiar surroundings of the Suzuka International Racing Circuit. As well as representing one of the more traditional races on the calendar, it gives us the opportunity to analyse historical data and identify trends.

Looking at the ten races held here that span the years from 1997 to 2006 is quite revealing: The domination of the premier drivers – Schumacher, Hakkinen and more recently Raikkonen and Alonso – in all of the win, pole and fastest lap markets leads me to believe that we should focus any betting at the head of the market again this weekend.

One other significant statistic that is apparent over that ten-year period is that the deployment of the Safety Car at Suzuka is an extremely rare occurence. Nine-and-a-half dry races along with the track configuration has resulted in a limited number of crashes and has prevented any debris from obstructing the racing line.

It is always worth keeping half an eye on the weather forecasts for Sunday, but that apart, Sky Bet’s 8/11 for No Safety Car looks too high based purely on historical events.

Image reproduced courtesy of Mark McArdle under these terms.


Written by f1punter

September 30, 2009 at 6:16 pm

3 Responses

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  1. […] F1 Punter has taken a look at the possibility of a safety car at Suzuka. It looks like the chances are not exactly high, but a lot of the current crop of drivers haven’t been on this track before, so anything could happen! […]

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