Formula 1: Against The Odds

The Return Of Felipe Massa

with 5 comments

Felipe MassaLast year was a bad one for Felipe Massa. Having finished 2008 coming so close to the championship and in the course of doing so, shown terrific humility and sportsmanship, he had every right to be excited about 2009. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, the combination of the worst Ferrari for years and a horrific accident put paid to his hopes.

2008 showed just how far Massa has come. From his drive-fast-crash-faster days at Sauber and his year out of the sport, in 2006 he managed to prize two wins away from his illustrious team-mate Michael Schumacher. 2007 brought more joy, with a further three victories (and a yielded second at Brazil). 2008 saw Massa mature and with it collect a very impressive six victories and mount a title challenge.

So what will 2010 hold? Everything seems to be indicating that it will be a tight campaign, with a whole heap of drivers competing for victories. The good news for Massa is that it appears that his Ferrari is right up there at the front in terms of pace.

If we assume that Felipe will show no effect of his injury – which I think that we have to given that he completed more testing mileage than anyone – how many races can he win this year? The calendar now stands at nineteen races, so there will be plenty of opportunities.

Bwin are offering odds-against (11/10) that it will be three or more. Given his progress through 2006 to 2008 and relative to his team-mate (who would have to win five races for you to collect at odds-on), I think that is the best price I have seen so far this season.

It’s only the first week in March and I’m starting slowly, but 2010 is off and running…

Image reproduced courtesy of Mark McArdle under these terms.


Written by f1punter

March 4, 2010 at 10:25 pm

5 Responses

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  1. Great new look to the site and good to see you back for the new season!
    Good shout on the Massa bet as well. For me the battle between him and Alonso will be an interesting one to follow. I’m also collecting odds data like that used in your previous post this season using the Betfair API and a little application I’ve made. Can’t wait now – only a week to go!


    March 5, 2010 at 10:06 am

  2. Cheers Flutterfly. I’ll look forward to seeing the outputs from that. I’ve always fancied graphing the data properly and seeing whether there are any trading principles that can be used for forecasting. I’m not sure yet.


    March 5, 2010 at 7:04 pm

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