Formula 1: Against The Odds

Sepang Safety Cars

with 2 comments

Charlie Whiting and Bernd MaylanderA difference of opinion between two bookmakers has lead to that all too rare event of a 100% book in the Safety Car market for this weekend’s Malaysian Grand Prix. That means that you could back both outcomes and be guaranteed not to lose any money. More pertinently, it means that if you have an opinion in this market, then you can back it safe in the knowledge that you are not paying a margin to the bookmaker.

Safety Car Market

Yes – 4/6 @ SportingBet
No – 6/4 @ William Hill

I have to admit, it is the latter price that is interesting me. By my reckoning, in the eleven races that have been held in Malaysia we have seen just three safety cars. The track is so wide in Sepang and the gravel traps so big, that you could almost have a twenty-two car smash and the remaining two drivers could navigate around the debris!

The price clearly factors in the chance of inclement weather – but as 2004 demonstrated – even that doesn’t guarantee the appearance of Bernd Mayländer. The earlier-than-last-year start could help mitigate against a thunderstorm at a time when the field is bunched, but that is really getting into the realms of guesswork.

In fact my biggest concern is not the weather but Charlie Whiting. Even at that spectacular last race, the sight of Alonso and Hamilton lapping a warp speed until they met the likes of Massa and Kubica and still not being able to pass must have set alarm bells ringing for those in charge of the sport. I can’t believe that at a racetrack as numb as Sepang the FIA race control won’t jump at the opportunity to artificially add excitement to the proceedings.

Still, three into eleven doesn’t make six into four. The weather reports at this stage are finger-in-the-air and I’d rather be on at odds-against, than odds-on. It is worth a punt I feel.

Image reproduced courtesy of Jane Belinda Smith under these terms.


Written by f1punter

April 1, 2010 at 10:42 pm

2 Responses

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