Formula 1: Against The Odds

From Lights to Flag in Spain

with one comment

Circuit de CatalunyaThe Circuit de Catalunya is renowned for being processional. It is the circuit that the teams know best, where car set-up should be as close to optimal as possible and where the layout provides such limited opportunities for passing. This puts more emphasis on qualifying position than any circuit that we have visited so far this season.

This has manifested itself in the teams changing their approach to Friday practice; with more emphasis on getting the car performing in qualifying set-up. Everyone is trying to close the gap on Saturday to Red Bull. Red Bull themselves responded by topping the time-sheets in Free Practice Two.

There is no need to read too much into practice times though or to try and predict the qualifying winner. Instead, history tells a story that gives us an opportunity to take a position on the weekend. In the last ten races held at this circuit in Barcelona, the driver starting from pole position has won the race nine times. If you go back further, the trend continues.

That begs the question, why are Bwin.com offering 11/10 on the pole-sitter winning the race? I can think of three reasons:

1.Their odds compilers are being extremely shrewd and believe that the chance of rain on Sunday is higher than the 20% currently being predicted by Weather.com.
2.It is a stock price.
3.It is an error.

Given the dozens (if not hundreds) of F1 markets that Bwin offer over the course of a race weekend and factoring in that they are the only firm offering this market (to my knowledge), my money would be that it is number two above at best, if not more likely number three.

Another way to look at this: will the driver starting on pole be odds-against for a race win when the markets form post-qualifying? With no light-fuel glory runs possible under this years regulations, the chances of the fastest car not being on pole are greatly reduced. If – for example – Vettel sets the pace on Saturday, I would expect his price for Sunday to be heavily odds-on.

11/10 just looks too big. Good luck.

Image reproduced courtesy of Punix under these terms.


Written by f1punter

May 8, 2010 at 9:51 am

One Response

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Given how one driver traditionally dominates the weekend in Spain, are BetFred taking a chance offering 3/1 about a Vettel Fastest Lap?


    May 8, 2010 at 11:03 am

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: