Formula 1: Against The Odds

On The Button In Turkey

with 3 comments

ButtonIt has been a testing week. I entered it knowing exactly how I wanted to play things, by backing Massa to outpoint Alonso before the media previews drew attention to his record around the Turkish circuit. Unfortunately with so few firms pricing up the head-to-heads early and so little liquidity on Betfair, by Thursday I had decided to cancel my unmatched bets and sit things out until the race. Alonso failing to make Q2 – a surprise to me – presented me with that all too familiar feeling of vindication mixed with frustration.

Other than the Alonso situation, qualifying played out as most expected and doesn’t appear to have created many extraordinary betting opportunities for the race. I expect backing Hamilton will be popular, although personally I have concerns both about his tyre-management and the record that pole-sitters have around here.

Turkey – on the face of it – doesn’t appear to be a circuit where historic statistics create any angles. Safety cars, retirements, winning margin et al all look unremarkable in averageness. So where is there potential for the grid order to change?

The driver that interests me the most today is Jenson Button. Last year’s winner, the Brit has an impressive record of never having finished behind his teammate in a Turkish Grand Prix and equally never failing to finish. Whilst it was Lewis Hamilton that was grabbing all of the headlines yesterday by splitting the two Red Bulls, Button quietly slipped into fourth place on the grid.

Whilst Turkey is renowned for being tough on tyres, particularly through the long turn eight, Jenson is equally renowned for his ability to look after them. There could be two crucial stages in the race for Button, both at the end of the first stint on the softer tyres and as the end of the race approaches.

The other thing that is interesting me about Button is his rivals. The threat from behind is diminished through Alonso’s absence and whilst Massa should not be discounted at a circuit he relishes, the Ferrari has not looked on the pace this weekend. In front of him, Button has three very quick cars, but with the Red Bulls still looking far from bulletproof and the possibility of fireworks as Hamilton attacks on lap one, I think Button has a decent chance of a podium today.

BetFred are a standout 15/8 about the man from Frome climbing the podium steps. I’m happy to get involved at those odds.

One other small bet that is interesting me is for Vettel to lead at the end of the first lap. As the two Red Bulls have not locked out the front row this weekend, I imagine that there have been fewer ‘formation-flying’ conversations than usual in the team motor-home. With Webber likely to be occupied with defending from Hamilton and both the Brit and the Aussie with reputations for not giving an inch, there might just be a sneaky opportunity for Vettel to capitalise.

At 16/1 on Betfair, not a lot of stake is required to generate an interest.

Image reproduced courtesy of Andrew Griffith under these terms.


3 Responses

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  1. Good call on Button. I also like the commnet “the Aussie with reputations for not giving an inch” !!!

    Flutter F1

    June 1, 2010 at 7:28 pm

  2. I guess that was the difference in the end!


    June 1, 2010 at 8:29 pm

  3. Jules Renard~ Be modest It is the kind of pride least likely to offend.

    chiropractic seminars

    January 5, 2012 at 7:05 am

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