Formula 1: Against The Odds

Red Bull Return In Qualifying

with 4 comments

Red BullsSaturdays in 2010 have been all about one team. Although Lewis Hamilton may have taken pole position last time out in Canada, Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel still managed second and third on the grid, despite opting to qualify on the harder compound tyre. For me, that is hardly a crashing fall from the the form that has seen them dominate Q3 so far this season; taking all of the previous seven pole positions.

It is somewhat surprising therefore, to see Vettel and Webber just second and fourth favourites to qualify fastest this weekend. McLaren have announced that their diffuser upgrade will not be ready until Silverstone, so presumably a switch to the softer compound tyres is all that is needed by Red Bull to reverse the positions from Canada? With dry weather forecast all weekend and the track expected to rubber-in, I can’t see why Red Bull would opt for any tyre other than the one that will allow them to control the race from the front; especially at a circuit renowned for its lack of overtaking opportunities.

Ferrari on the other hand, are bringing their diffuser upgrade and there has been much speculation in the press as to the level of advantage that it will bring. Fernando Alonso has been making positive noises as you would expect – possibly looking to direct the focus of the Italian press to the car’s previous under-performance and away from his mistakes – of which they have been so critical.

The fact remains that Ferrari will need a large performance step to challenge in Qualifying, where they have previously been uncompetitive relative to their race pace. Will this diffuser upgrade be enough to haul in the Red Bulls? It certainly seems to be the question that is shaking up the market.

Finally, one thing that seems to be being overlooked in the clamour around the Ferrari upgrades is the possibility that Red Bull will run their own take on the F-duct. It is planned that they will use it in Friday practice and if it is deemed successful then presumably they will leave it fitted for Qualifying, giving them an extra boost down Valencia’s long straights. That could temper any gains that Ferrari achieve.

As I type, Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are trading at 4.6 and 6.6 respectively to take Pole Position on Betfair. As predicting who has the upper-hand in the team has been difficult all season, I am happy to simply dutch the two drivers and take my chance that one of them gets the job done. That gives me an effective bet of:

Red Bull to take Pole Position @ 2.71 (Betfair)

Those odds compare somewhat favourably with the best available for that bet elsewhere (2.4 @ Bwin). Good luck.

Image reproduced courtesy of Morio under these terms.


4 Responses

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  1. Good call, you couldn’t have got it more right!

    Flutter F1

    June 27, 2010 at 9:00 am

  2. Cheers. Nice when it all goes according to plan!


    June 27, 2010 at 10:43 am

  3. Lol this post reminds me of very funny thing my pal got involved in, he walked into soaked napkin, yelled “craaaaaaa*” and fell down… + food flew to plouse of by stander, this happened at our engagement lol…

    Well story short, you’v written quite good post, makes me crack a smile.

  4. Aw, this was a really nice post. In idea I want to put in writing like this moreover ?taking time and actual effort to make a very good article?but what can I say?I procrastinate alot and in no way appear to get one thing done.

    Donn Stoebner

    July 20, 2011 at 4:44 am

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