Formula 1: Against The Odds

Renault Flying in Race Trim

with one comment

KubicaIf world championship points were awarded for the top-ten fastest laps of the race, rather than finishing positions, Robert Kubica would be fourth in the world championship. Prior to Monaco, he would have been just eighth. In the last three grand prix, Renault have set the second fastest lap of the race in Monaco and the fastest laps in both Turkey and Canada. The yellow car certainly flies in race trim.

Despite this, the top of the fastest lap market continues to be dominated by the usual suspects from Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari. Prior to qualifying yesterday, Kubica was just seventh favourite in the market at 16/1. That represented outstanding value about a car sporting some impressive new aerodynamic upgrades.

When backing drivers to set the fastest lap, I much prefer to buy their performance on the spread markets rather than backing them outright. This introduces an otherwise missing each-way element. Frustratingly the spread firms steadfastly refuse to price up the market prior to qualifying – presumably running scared of a lack of information.

Kubica has shortened post-Qualifying to a best-priced 14/1 (fifth-favourite) to set the fastest lap of the race in Valencia. SportingIndex have priced their spread at 7-10 (also fifth-favourite). As disappointing as it is to lose this value waiting for a market to be created, the shift seems to reflect Kubica’s strong Q2 performance which further indicates his pace going in to the race.

We should also not disregard his team-mate Petrov, who was responsible for the fastest race lap in Turkey. Considered by all to be an outsider, a top-ten qualifying position on a circuit that he excelled at in GP2 is a solid performance. Petrov is a quite ridiculous 100/1 with Bet365 to set the fastest lap. Again, it is such a pity there is no each-way element to these fixed-price markets! SportingIndex’s quote of 1-3 might just offer some value though.

However you choose to play this fastest lap market, good luck if you get involved.

Image reproduced courtesy of Richard Munckton and Chubbennaitor under these terms.


Written by f1punter

June 27, 2010 at 11:22 am

One Response

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