Formula 1: Against The Odds

Archive for the ‘Montreal’ Category

Carnage in Canada

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ButtonIn the eleven races held at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve since I started keeping my records, there have been seventeen safety cars deployed. Only three of those races have seen no safety car at all. Statistically that is more often than any other circuit bar Melbourne, including Monaco.
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Written by f1punter

June 5, 2010 at 9:48 am

Canada: Thoughts On The Race

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Lewis Hamilton is odds-on for victory following his highly impressive qualifying performance at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. As I type, he is currently trading at around 1.64 – 1.65 on Betfair and at that price I feel that he has to be opposed. There is no doubt about his ability to wring a lap from his McLaren around here, but all of the press reaction subsequent to qualifying has been about his ‘dominance’ over the other drivers and I think that this, in part, is responsible for such an unattractively short price. Continue reading…

Canadian Slam

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Ok I am back again with more ramblings about the Safety Car – just say if I am getting repetitive!  The last race in Monaco saw the bookmakers offering some ridiculously short prices about the Safety Car being deployed, with 4/11 being just about the best price at the off. As I pointed out in my last post, this was never value and in truth I took a bit of satisfaction watching the seventy-eight trouble-free laps knowing that I had swerved it.

Next weekend’s race is a different proposition though and I am pleased to see the bookies falling into the trap I hoped they would. Not everyone has their markets out yet, but SkyBet are offering 4/5 that the Safety Car will be deployed at some point in the race.  I think that this is a very generous price and will be surprised if a) they hold it all week, or b) anybody else prices it up longer.

Montreal is always a venue that I target in this market due to the proximity of its tyre walls to the track and the small run-off areas that often make vehicle recovery tricky and blockage likely.  There is also the infamous ‘Champions Wall’ at such a precarious part of the circuit. The statistics certainly back me up:

In the nine years that I have been keeping my records, the Safety Car has been deployed no fewer than twelve times, more than any other track bar Melbourne (also twelve times).  Six out of the nine races have seen it appear at least once. On three occasions we have failed even to get past the first lap without the marshals holding out the SC board.  In last year’s race we saw the Safety Car twice; on lap one and again on lap sixty.

Perhaps what I like most about this bet though is the knowledge that the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve has the potential to pop-up and bite even the very best drivers when they least expect it.

If anyone sees a better price than 4/5 between now and the race please post it up.

Written by f1punter

June 4, 2007 at 9:39 pm