F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Archive for the ‘Silverstone’ Category

British Bits And Bobs

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SiverstoneWith this weekend’s race looking like little more than a battle between the Red Bulls, I’ve been ploughing through the statistics to see if there is anything that stands out. Continue reading…

Ferrari, Fuel and Friday Practice

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On the Friday of the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, I was fortunate enough to spend the day as a guest of Shell to discuss their technical partnership with the Ferrari Formula 1 team. Continue reading…

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June 26, 2009 at 5:58 pm

Silverstone Sunday Summary

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I’ve been doing a bit of analysis on Qualifying runs and declared fuel – using La Canta Magnifico’s Fuel Fing – in an effort to forecast pit-stop schedules. Here’s the output: Continue reading…

Glorious British Webber

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A few people will know that I backed Mark Webber in qualifying at Silverstone last year at odds of 150/1. With just one driver left out on track at the end of the session, the Australian was on provisional pole. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be, but the bet has stuck in my mind ever since. Continue reading…

Silverstone Best Of The Rest

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Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso lie next to each other, eighth and ninth in the championship respectively, with just two points separating them. Whilst the season has been the most consistent in memory for the Australian, it has been one of frustration for the Spaniard. Regardless it is likely that these two Renault-powered drivers will be fighting for the same bit of tarmac in today’s race. Continue reading…

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July 6, 2008 at 11:21 am

British Grand Prix Data Sheet

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pdf-icon.jpg Click the pdf icon for a summary of the historic data for forthcoming British Grand Prix. No safety car last year was unusual for Silverstone, with five in the previous four years. Is the even money at Betfair for it to be seen again too big? And who will come out on top in the race, Ferrari or McLaren?

Title: British Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 85.9kb

Written by f1punter

July 1, 2008 at 1:02 am

Silverstone Survivors

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The market that has been interesting me most in the run up to this weekend’s British Grand Prix is the Total Number of Drivers to be Classified. The interest stems particularly from the chance of inclement weather and the effect that this will have on the prices.

The Statistics

In the eight races so far this season the average number of classified drivers has been 16.25 (73.86%). In the last ten races at Silverstone just 71.23% of drivers have completed (15.67 drivers using Sunday’s projected field).

Where it becomes interesting is when we split Silverstone’s wet and dry races. Eight of the last ten have been dry and have seen 76.92% of drivers classified (16.92 projected drivers).  In the two wet races the average figure falls below 50% and we could expect as few as 10.74 drivers to see the chequered flag. I appreciate that the latter is a small sample but it is broadly reflective of what I would expect to see.

The Market

A small difference in opinion between two firms means that there is just a 103% book available and this gives me some options:

4/5 (Under 16.5) @ SportingOdds
11/10 (Over 16) @ Bet365

The prices look like the fairly standard ones that these two churn out week after week, so I am fairly confident that if the market is to move significantly, it will only be in one direction (and because it is a wet race).

The Bet

Looking at the weather forecast for Sunday, Weather.com have predicted rain for 12:00 local time.  Based on the above statistics – and the logic that more drivers will spin off in the wet – I am going to take the early price of Under 16.5 @ 4/5.  If come Sunday afternoon we have a wet race I do not believe that this price will be available (if it is – take it – it is value).  If the weather forecasters are wrong and the track is bathed in sunshine, I will close out my bet using Bet365’s price and accept a very small loss and no risk.  What I am playing, is my believe that the market makers have not adequately factored in the possibility of a wet race into their early prices.

The Alternative

If you are a weather-forecaster or you are just certain that it will be a rain-affected race then Bet365 are offering 15/8 that there will be under 15 classified drivers. This would be value.

Good luck.

Written by f1punter

July 6, 2007 at 8:28 pm