Formula 1: Against The Odds

Carnage in Canada

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ButtonIn the eleven races held at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve since I started keeping my records, there have been seventeen safety cars deployed. Only three of those races have seen no safety car at all. Statistically that is more often than any other circuit bar Melbourne, including Monaco.

At the last round of the F1 World Championship in Monaco, bookmakers were offering best odds of just 1/4 on the Safety Car appearing. On that basis they should be even shorter for Montreal. Historically though, there have been pricing errors and there has been much value to be had. As I write, with less than a week to go until Friday practice, not one single bookmaker has dared to price up the market. Poor stuff. I have managed to get bits and pieces on Betfair at 1/2 and will continue to pick off value at the top of that market as it fluctuates. Keep an eye on the firms for rogue prices though.

The reason for my confidence is simple. The tight walls around the Canadian circuit simply leave nowhere for debris to go in the event of a collision, making a safety car deployment almost inevitable. Throw in ‘Champions Wall’ and the fact that we have the biggest field for years and I will be shocked if we have seventy laps of green flag racing.

If anyone spots any tasty prices, please post them in the comments (after you have had your share of course!). Good luck.

Image reproduced courtesy of magicfab under these terms.


Written by f1punter

June 5, 2010 at 9:48 am

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