Alonso Gamble In Monte Carlo

The starting point for any Monaco GP betting is the Safety Car. Not only its appearance, but the influence that it will have on the race. One common mistake that people make is assuming that the Safety Car is omnipresent at Monaco. In fact it has only been deployed seven times in the last twelve years and in just five of those twelve races. That makes the near-4/1 available on Betfair for Bernd Maylander to have the day off pretty interesting.

Unfortunately, rather than trust the statistics, the presence of so many cars, so many rookies, such speed differential and the absence of fuel-strategy overtaking makes me think that its deployment is inevitable. I’m going to leave the market alone, but I’ll be kicking myself at 3pm if there has been no appearance.

Of course a Safety Car period does denote one near-certainty, that there has been a retirement. Fernando Alonso was quoted yesterday stating that he expects there to be around eight to ten retirements. That feels about right to me and suggests that the bookmakers have got their prices fairly spot-on. There is no obvious value that I can see in the market.

Eight to ten retirements would put a still-running Alonso on the brink of the points. Even just passing the real back-markers and the simplest tyre strategy should be enough to seem him finish the weekend with something to show in the world championship standings. It makes Extrabet’s 11/8 for him to finish in the points the standout bet for me this weekend.

Throw in the confusion of a safety car period or two and the likelihood of him sliding through the field once the leaders come round (as the cars that are pulling over make the mistake of assuming his red Ferrari is one of them) and I think he can aim higher than tenth. Michael Schumacher’s charge from 22nd to 5th in 2006 sets the precedent. Vettel achieved the same from 19th just a couple of years ago.

Alonso had shown real pace around here up until his accident and you can be sure the Ferrari strategists have been working as hard as the Ferrari mechanics have been since yesterday morning. Alonso has shown already this season that he is the ultimate opportunist, demonstrated by his pass on Massa in the pitlane. I’d expect him to take any similar opportunities that present themselves in this race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop-up the top six, equally I couldn’t make a case for the 18/1 about a podium on Betfair being unreasonable.

Let’s hope it is interesting.

Image reproduced courtesy of aimelaime.