Points to Prove?

Nobody truly knows how the inaugural race in Valencia will pan out; however most seem to be speculating that it will be incident-packed. A safety car appearance is long odds-on, whilst the betting would also indicate that we should expect to see in the region of six retirements. Several drivers, strategists and team principals have also indicated that planning for a safety car has entered their thoughts.

With this in mind, I am going to chance my arm on a couple of less-fancied drivers to finish in the points. Kazuki Nakajima and Sebastien Bourdais could both be described as outsiders even within their respective teams; but at the odds that are available, I believe that a case can be made for backing them this weekend. Certainly with the driver market about to move into top gear they both have a point to prove.

Nakajima’s ability to “survive” into the points prompted me to write this earlier in the season. There I highlighted that the street circuits of Monaco and Canada could well be the places to profit. The Japanese driver justified my support with a seventh place finish in the principality, followed by a retirement from ninth position in Montreal, having ran as high as second in the race. Since then he has again overcome the adversity of the British conditions to pick up points at Silverstone.

Back on another street circuit this weekend, Kazuki has actually posted his best qualifying result of the season: lining up in eleventh place. With his teammate just ahead of him in ninth – in a rare top ten appearance for the Williams – there is plenty to be hopeful about this weekend. Several firms go 9/4 about Nakajima picking up the three places that he needs to make it his fifth points scoring finish of the season. I’m happy to get involved with that.

Sebastien Bourdais is having a strong weekend. Whilst much of the attention has been focused on his teammate, the Frenchman (who has plenty of experience of street circuits from his Champ Car days) has quietly been getting on with the business of punching above his weight. Fourth in Practice 1 and third in Practice 3 paved the way for his first top-ten grid slot of the season.

It is a worry that he hasn’t managed to finish in the points since Albert Park, but at least it is a high-speed temporary track that he is encountering again this weekend. Critically the Toro Rosso that his team have rocked up with in Valencia would appear to be a different beast (bull?) to the one that we have seen before. There are still bits of 2/1 around for him to finish in the points.

Good luck.