F1Punter

Formula 1: Against The Odds

Points to Prove?

with 4 comments

Nobody truly knows how the inaugural race in Valencia will pan out; however most seem to be speculating that it will be incident-packed. A safety car appearance is long odds-on, whilst the betting would also indicate that we should expect to see in the region of six retirements. Several drivers, strategists and team principals have also indicated that planning for a safety car has entered their thoughts.

With this in mind, I am going to chance my arm on a couple of less-fancied drivers to finish in the points. Kazuki Nakajima and Sebastien Bourdais could both be described as outsiders even within their respective teams; but at the odds that are available, I believe that a case can be made for backing them this weekend. Certainly with the driver market about to move into top gear they both have a point to prove.

Nakajima’s ability to “survive” into the points prompted me to write this earlier in the season. There I highlighted that the street circuits of Monaco and Canada could well be the places to profit. The Japanese driver justified my support with a seventh place finish in the principality, followed by a retirement from ninth position in Montreal, having ran as high as second in the race. Since then he has again overcome the adversity of the British conditions to pick up points at Silverstone.

Back on another street circuit this weekend, Kazuki has actually posted his best qualifying result of the season: lining up in eleventh place. With his teammate just ahead of him in ninth – in a rare top ten appearance for the Williams – there is plenty to be hopeful about this weekend. Several firms go 9/4 about Nakajima picking up the three places that he needs to make it his fifth points scoring finish of the season. I’m happy to get involved with that.

Sebastien Bourdais is having a strong weekend. Whilst much of the attention has been focused on his teammate, the Frenchman (who has plenty of experience of street circuits from his Champ Car days) has quietly been getting on with the business of punching above his weight. Fourth in Practice 1 and third in Practice 3 paved the way for his first top-ten grid slot of the season.

It is a worry that he hasn’t managed to finish in the points since Albert Park, but at least it is a high-speed temporary track that he is encountering again this weekend. Critically the Toro Rosso that his team have rocked up with in Valencia would appear to be a different beast (bull?) to the one that we have seen before. There are still bits of 2/1 around for him to finish in the points.

Good luck.

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Written by f1punter

August 23, 2008 at 9:06 pm

4 Responses

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  1. I hope you right about Kazuki – I got matched at 1000 for £2 earlier in the week. The Hedfeild fastest lap spread also looks good and I may have a bit off that. I don’t know about you but i’m really struggling this weekend – there’s plenty about if you want to take the risk but I keep wimping out and taking a safe option.

    John

    August 23, 2008 at 9:46 pm

  2. I presume that is 1000 on the outright market not the points! Still a nice price though.

    Actually I am the other way around, I planned to approach the weekend with caution (and was doing when I found no value in the specials markets) but between following Grasshopper on his bets, my own couple in Quali and now three bets on the race I am doing ok!

    Have you got anything for the race yet? I just checked your site for a write up.

    f1punter

    August 23, 2008 at 9:52 pm

  3. Yeah that was for race win! Seems ridicolus now but that race did not pan out anywere near what I expected. I obviously didn’t expect Kazuki (or any other midfield runner to win it) but I figured at least one safety car would muddle the pack and give me a chance to trade out again at much lower odds. It just didn’t work out like that though.

    The Heidfeld bet was worth a go. He was setting personal bests in the last 5 or so laps but just didn’t quite have the pace. I haven’t seen a fastest lap table yet but I think he was probably around 4/5th.

    John

    August 24, 2008 at 4:11 pm

  4. Cheers John. It is fair to say that it didn’t pan out like I expected either! Like you say on your blog, it was a learning experience!

    f1punter

    August 25, 2008 at 9:14 pm


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