Familiarity Breeds Safety Cars

There are far too many unknowns ahead of this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix for me to get involved in any of the outcome markets. Who is on pole, who goes on to win and who sets the fastest lap will all become clear at various stages of the weekend.

2009 Not a Preview

I’ve been trying to resist writing a preview or even looking at the markets for the forthcoming Formula One season for several reasons. Firstly my records would suggest that I am not a particularly good ante post punter.

Albert Park Alternatives

My main bet for the race is detailed here, but these are a few others that I have an interest in:

Alonso to finish in the points @ EVS (Coral)

Problems with his differential meant (to an extent) that Fernando Alonso qualified in an unfamiliar position outside of the top ten.

A Sunday Spread

The opening race of the 2006 season saw a stunning drive by Kimi Raikkonen from the back of the grid to finish on the Bahrain podium. Here in Australia on the opening day of last season, his teammate managed to drag his Ferrari forward sixteen places in fifty-eight laps after starting from last place. Following his fuel pressure problem in qualifying, Raikkonen again faces a similar task – starting from sixteenth on the grid. I am backing him to make a good fist of it.

Australian Grand Prix Data Sheet

As promised, here is the first in the series of data sheets that I will be producing in advance of each Grand Prix. Hopefully the statistics and trends that I have included will provide some useful pointers for those of you looking to have a bet.

Title: Australian Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 85.4kb

Melbourne Movers and Shakers

I have just been looking at the revised best prices post-Melbourne for the Driver and Manufacturer World Championships. The bookmaker’s changes generally appear to reflect the press reaction of the last week. The question is, are any of them an overreaction at this stage of the season?

I certainly didn’t expect to see the reigning Manufacturers champions available at 33/1 after just one race.

F1 Drivers Championship Odds

Driver	Pre-	Post-
Kimi Raikkonen	2/1	15/13
Fernando Alonso	51/20	5/2
Felippe Massa	4/1	7/2
Lewis Hamilton	25/1	15/1
Nick Heidfeld	66/1	50/1
Robert Kubica	40/1	66/1
Jenson Button	25/1	100/1
Giancarlo Fisichella	34/1	100/1
Heikki Kovalainen	34/1	100/1
Rubens Barrichello	100/1	200/1
Jarno Trulli	150/1	200/1
Ralf Schumacher	150/1	200/1
Nico Rosberg	300/1	300/1
Alex Wurz	300/1	300/1
David Coulthard	300/1	500/1
Mark Webber	300/1	500/1
Anthony Davidson	1000/1	750/1
Takuma Sato	1000/1	750/1
Christian Albers	1000/1	2500/1
Vitantonio Liuzzi	1000/1	2500/1
Scott Speed	1000/1	2500/1
Adrian Sutil	1000/1	3000/1

F1 Manufacturers Championship Odds

Manufacturer	Pre-	Post-
Ferrari	4/7	1/2
McLaren	11/4	2/1
BMW Sauber	25/1	20/1
Renault	14/1	33/1
Honda	33/1	80/1
Toyota	150/1	150/1
Williams	250/1	250/1
Super Aguri	1000/1	500/1
Red Bull	250/1	500/1
Toro Rosso	750/1	2000/1
Spyker	750/1	5000/1

Best prices taken from Oddschecker. Better prices may be available on the exchanges.

Massa Charge

In the opening race of the 2006 Formula One season we witnessed a stunning drive from Kimi Raikonnen from 19th on the grid to claim a place on the Bahrain podium. Fast-forward 12 months and it is his teammate who will be looking to repeat the feat, as Massa starts from 16th position in today’s Australian Grand Prix.

The Brazilian has no reason to be fazed by this task. Two years ago – the last time that Melbourne hosted the season-opener – both Fernando Alonso and Rubens Barrichello (then driving a Ferrari) started from outside of the top ten to take their respective places on the podium.

Indeed Massa himself is no stranger to scything through F1 fields. Since his move to Ferrari he has started outside of the top ten on three occasions (21st, 21st and 22nd). On the first two occasions he improved his finishing position by 16 and 12 places respectively. In the third race – at China – a storming drive from last position had seen him run as high as fifth position before he ultimately retired from the race (whilst still running inside the top ten).

Yesterday’s qualifying showed that the McLaren and the BMWs are capable of running at a strong pace but there was little doubt that the Ferrari is still the fastest car on the grid. I expect Massa to be able to put this to good use.

Boylesports are currently offering the following bet at a standout price:

Australian GP To Finish On The Podium – Felipe Massa @ 4/1

The only concerns I have about taking this price are the unknown nature of the gearbox problems that Massa suffered during qualifying and the sheer number of cars that the Brazilian will have to pass cleanly to enable him to finish inside the top three. For that reason I will be covering my stake with the 11/5 available at Expekt that Massa will not be classified.

Good Luck.

I bet we see the Safety Car…

Looking away from the obvious this weekend, one market that interests me is whether or not the Safety Car will be deployed during the Australian Grand Prix. Unsurprisingly this occurrence is far from random and an important attribute is the nature of the track.

It seems that the key factor in Safety Car deployment is not the potential number of accidents that can occur during the race; but the potential for accidents to leave the track blocked, either by debris or by the cars themselves. Obviously therefore tracks with small run off areas such as Monaco, Montreal and Melbourne are prime candidates.

Other factors that I would look to take into account are the weather, the number of rookie drivers in the race and any changes in the regulations to which the drivers are likely to need time to adjust.

Which brings me to this weekend’s race at Melbourne…

I have already highlighted the fact that this is a track with the potential for us to see the Safety Car and the statistics bear that out.  In the nine races held at Melbourne since 1998 (no stats available for 1996 and 1997), the Safety Car has been deployed no fewer than twelve times – including four times during last year’s race. In that period only three races have been completed without the introduction of the Safety Car.

Given that it is the first race of the season, the potential for mistakes is also heightened. Indeed five of the drivers lining up on the grid in Melbourne will be racing on its slick and slippery surface for the first time in a Formula 1 car.

Furthermore, all 22 drivers will be using the new Bridgestone Potenza tyres – and having to come to terms with using more than one compound during the race.  It has also been noticeable that in all of the pre-race interviews with the drivers, when asked about tyres, the feature that they most focus upon is the lack of grip when compared with last year’s offerings. It will be interesting to see how they perform under race conditions.

Which leads me to my bet. The statistics alone point to it being a 4/6 shot that we will see the Safety Car at some point and it could be argued that the number of rookies and the new tyres make it even shorter. Therefore I consider that the following represents some value:

Australian GP Safety Car market – Yes @ 4/5 – SkyBet

Good luck.